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Michael Kidd-Gilchrist laughs at your "Too young to win it all" meme.
Yes, we have heard it all before, and we will hear it again. That is, until it's wrong.
What am I talking about? The same thing that starts to crop up every year for the last three years: Kentucky can't win the NCAA Tournament championship with freshmen. This time, it is Shane Ryan writing for Grantland.
Consider this:
What about a national championship? Conventional wisdom says that teams who win a title have a fortunate combination of talent and experience, meaning that Kentucky is bound to fall short yet again. To assess the accuracy of that idea, let's look at the last few title winners.
Ryan goes on to list the NCAA Tournament champions from the last 12 years, contending, essentially, that none of them were truly freshman-led (although he really doesn't differentiate this point). His argument is, in essence, that because we have had so few (2003's Syracuse team probably has to be considered an exception) freshmen-led NCAA title winners, the odds are against having another one.
There isn't really anything wrong with this analysis per se. In two tries with freshmen-led teams, Kentucky has come up just short both times. Ryan's argument is that the missing element seems to be experience, but unfortunately (or fortunately, if you're a Kentucky fan), his case isn't all that persuasive, even though his facts are indisputable.
What he fails to mention, and what is usually not mentioned by people taking this "The odds are ..." approach, is that there have been very few teams in history, save the Michigan Wolverines' Fab Five of the 1990's, that resemble any of Kentucky's basketball teams -- supremely talented freshmen playing together unselfishly. With such a small sample to deal with, I think drawing definitive conclusions from history is not particularly convincing.
I think that an argument could be made that last year's team cracked a bit under the pressure of the big stage. That would seem to validate Ryan's point, and in isolation, it does. Kentucky came into that Final Four game off two very tough and emotionally draining wins, one over a big non-conference rival and the other an upset over the top-seeded team in the tourney. This is a team that exceeded expectations to get where they were, and had little margin for error against the best in the country. Ultimately, that margin was just too thin to get them over the hump against Connecticut.
In the 2010 tournament, the Wildcats had a glaring weakness that the West Virginia Mountaineers found a way to exploit -- 3-point shooting. This wasn't really a case of Kentucky collapsing under pressure, but more of a fantastic job of coaching by Bob Huggins, who knew his team could not match up with UK one-on-one - nobody could. So he did what almost every team that is undermanned does now, if they can -- force UK to score against a zone, in this case, the most famous (or infamous) 1-3-1 to be found anywhere in Kentucky lore.
Calipari, to his credit, learned from the first team that you have to have shooters to run his offense. He tried to recruit one late in the process in 2010 (Darnell Dodson -- remember him?), but he didn't really turn out to be any good at consistency, and couldn't defend his position. As a result, Cal tried to trot out Dodson when they needed a zone-buster, but that strategy simply didn't work, and the Mountaineers demoralized the Wildcats.
One could argue that this was a consequence of their youth, and it possibly was, but it was the weakness Huggins successfully exploited that led to the defeat, not really the youth of the team. An older team might not have panicked, as UK did a bit in the end, but we have seen experienced teams do that under pressure as well.
Which brings us to this year's team. Unlike the last two teams, this Kentucky team has no discernible weaknesses at any position. They lack frontcourt depth, but that has not been a problem all year long except very early, in the Indiana game. It could rear its head if Anthony Davis suddenly becomes foul prone, but right now, Davis is currently 43rd n the nation in fewest fouls drawn, averaging barely 2 per contest.
It's also worth mentioning that for the first time in the John Calipari era, the Wildcats have players with Final Four experience -- not just one, or two, but several -- namely, Darius Miller, Doron Lamb, and Terrence Jones in the starting rotation, Eloy Vargas on the bench, and Jon Hood and Jarrod Polson as moral support. That is unprecedented during Calipari's reign, and valuable.
So if Kentucky gets to the Final Four this year, I recommend you print out Ryan's article, put it in the shredder, burn the remains, bury the ashes and salt the earth at the point of interment. You heard it here first -- If this Kentucky team makes it to the Final Four uninjured, prepare a place in the Rafters for #8.
0 recs | 56 comments
Overall I thought that was a pretty ridiculous article
The title led me to believe it would be about one thing, and then Ryan dovetails into another.
His “evidence” is anecdotal at best, basically just listing the champions and the mish-mash of talent. I’d say a few things:
1) Anything prior to 2007 should probably be discounted, given that most of the one-and-done talents were zero-and-done, declaring straight for the draft (Carmelo Anthony probably the most notable exception).
2) Ryan states that maturity is about experience rather than age…then goes on to conveniently not mention that 3 of Kentucky’s core rotation players—Jones, Lamb, Miller—are coming off a Final Four run. Excluding the exceptions that Kentucky’s “inexperience” is inline with—’11 UConn, ’06 UF, ’03 Cuse—the common thread is that most of those teams were good the year prior—Elite 8/Final 4 type finishes—and built upon that experience the following year. If that sounds like the Jones, Lamb, Miller triumvirate…it damn well should.
jc25 - January 26, 2012
Agreed.
I think he failed to make his point convincingly.
Glenn Logan - January 26, 2012
Also, how many freshman did UCONN play last year?
Lamb, Napier, Olander, Smith, and Giffey were all freshman. UConn’s defeat of UK is less an example of the value of team experience than it is the value of having the best player on the floor (Kemba). This year I’m pretty sure UK will have the best player on the floor no matter who we play because of (insert the name of whoever you think the best player on UK is. I pick Davis).
KDH2011 - January 26, 2012
To young to win it all...
I figured this would pop up during the course of the year. There are simply to many factors that go into winning a championship for me to think youth is the only factor.
Just think maybe in a couple months we’ll get to hear these people go from “there to young” to “oh well it will be vacated eventually” :-)
JohnPike - January 26, 2012 via Android app
You'll hear that from the haters, for sure.
But I think we’re all pretty immune to that now. After having just said that, the first sportswriter to go all “Kentucky’s title will be vacated” is probably going to feel my wrath. :-)
Glenn Logan - January 26, 2012
Heh
I look forward to you taking the “wood” to said sportswriters :-)
JohnPike - January 26, 2012 via Android app
Looking forward to that wrath!
a2d2 - January 26, 2012
Other than it's youth, this team can't be compared to other teams
In Miller, Jones and Lamb this team has more experienced contributers than the Fab Five. Yes we’re young, but the athleticism and skill level of our freshmen and sophomores separates us, even from our team two years ago. Our depth is my only concern.
chicagoblues - January 26, 2012
If anything, I think last year's entire run serves as a counter example
All 4 wins leading to the Final 4 were tightly fought affairs that required good execution, playing under control, mental toughness, and a bit of luck. All were win-or-go-home affairs, just like the Final Four. The Cats made some poor choices in the UConn game, and maybe it was because of the big stage, but the 4 games prior were just as big at the time they were played and UK got the win each time.
I don’t think there is any way to isolate “youth caused them to lose to UConn” from “good decisions and play helped get them to the Final Four”.
JLeverenz - January 26, 2012
I think that's a fair argument.
Last year’s team was an execution team, and the tournament always requires luck.
But even if you can’t isolate youth as a cause, I think you can argue it was a factor convincingly. That argument can also be convincingly refuted.
So I guess it’s more or less what we choose to believe. :-)
Glenn Logan - January 26, 2012
yeah, this.
I choose to believe that UK was incredibly unlucky at the free throw line ;-)
JLeverenz - January 26, 2012
Heh.
Works for me!
Glenn Logan - January 26, 2012
Don't forget
UConn put a 17-point whipping on last year’s Cats in their 5th game. It could just be that UConn had our number last year. o lose by only one in our last game showed tremendous improvement, but just that — improvement.
jdogblue - January 26, 2012
Really, the haters have gone back into the woodwork for the most part.
I think they got tired of turning over rocks and finding nothing there. On another note, last night UL game announcers stated Pitino only coach to take 3 different schools to the final four. I consider Cal also, wrong or not?
UK1972 - January 26, 2012
They do seem to be much quieter lately.
Not sure what that means. They haven’t gone away, though, I do know that.
Glenn Logan - January 26, 2012
Cal
I believe 2 of his were vacated so he wouldnt sho up in the records.
bigbill992001 - January 27, 2012
It looks like another kid trying to make his bones hacking on the Cats and Calipari.
I guess the numbers weigh it out, and I wont argue about his logic, so I guess I just take it for what it is and move on. If this had been released in print, it would have made for some good bathroom material. And I don’t mean to read.
Greg Alan Edwards - January 26, 2012
"make his bones?"
Heh.
Glenn Logan - January 26, 2012
To shut up all the critics out there....there's only one thing left to do....
“Win the whole f%^kin’ thing!”
:)
kentuckyrules - January 26, 2012
exactly.....
Greg Alan Edwards - January 26, 2012
ROFLMAO!!! (I really am, yes)
kentuckyrules - January 26, 2012
Oh, that's a +1 from me!
Glenn Logan - January 26, 2012
Major League references are an automatic +1
JLeverenz - January 26, 2012
Here's another thought.
First, I didn’t read the Grantland piece as a “hater’s” article. But, it was unconvincing. Consider that except for the fact that he did such an outstanding job developing the 2009 team, last year’s squad would have included Bledsoe and Orton, neither of whom was supposed to be a one-and-done. So the premise that Calipari only recruits such players is insupportable. Sometines, He makes such a player in the course of the year. Does Ryan think Coach should just hold back from doing this?
Also, if Jodie Meeks had returned in 2009 instead of jumping to the pros, the West Virginia game could easily have had a different outcome. But it would not have been due to his “maturity,” just his shooting eye.
BCinVA - January 26, 2012
Sorry, I obviously don't know how to employ the BOLD button.....
BCinVA - January 26, 2012
I agree that it wasn't a "hater" article.
Just for the record. And I don’t think I suggested it was, in any way. Merely unconvincing, as you say.
Glenn Logan - January 26, 2012
Well so far,
the guy is right, until he is wrong. Just because it hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it can’t.
kywineman - January 26, 2012
I read recently
“The absense of evidence does not mean evidence is absent.”
jdogblue - January 26, 2012
Very Popperian
Thank you.
Or as Einstein framed his new theory of relativity…he stated it had to pass three (or four) tests to be proven (he was not as dogmatically confident as some scientists are today). The last of which was not completed till long after his death.
wingke6 - January 26, 2012
Who to Believe?
I seem to recall Coach Cal saying, on several occasions, that he prefers talent over experience every time. It seems safe to assume his opinion is much more credible (certainly more valuable) than ours, so I place my trust in Coach.
As for the “haters” and comments about wins being vacated, that comes with hiring Coach Cal. We just have to accept it and hope for the best. I’m pretty sure it won’t be on our mind in March when we are celebrating!
BarryM - January 26, 2012
Disclaimer
Ryan would have been wise to have heeded the investment disclaimer:
Every team stands alone. Attempting to judge the championship possibilities of this year’s Wildcats using history as a guide is fraught with peril. That UK is Vegas favorite (4-1) might be a better metric.
Wild Weasel - January 26, 2012
Here, here
bigbill992001 - January 27, 2012
Calipari On PTI Today
ESPN 5:30 EST. ESPN News 6:30 EST.
Wild Weasel - January 26, 2012
Real Question for Mr. Ryan, is "what do you really think?"
In an article posted on 24 Jan on Grantland (a great site that I thouroughly enjoy), titled “A Few Good 1-Seeds” the same Mr. Ryan said the following : “Kentucky (19-1) The absolute best. Coach John Calipari finally has the combination of superlative freshmen and excellent upperclassmen he’s coveted since taking over in Lexington. As of now, these are your national champions, and it’s hard to see how anyone could knock them off the 1-seed platform.” How does a win on the road change this opinion to “too young to win it all”?
As for the premise of the “too young” argument I think that including any team prior to 2007 is futile and irrelevant to this argument. Before 2007 the best 18 year old players in the country were able to go straight to the Pros (with Carmelo being the obvious exception). To make this argument a historical one is falacy, there is not enough of a sample size to hold water. It is also inappropriate to not include that each of the teams that have won an NC listed here were Elite 8/Final 4 caliber teams the previous year which was bound to be invaluable in their championship run. Half of UK’s first 8 have that experience and that cannot be easily discounted.
NavyBlue - January 26, 2012
Great catch, Navy.
You allow the author to rebut his own argument. Beauty!
Wheatgerm - January 26, 2012
Archie Goodwin: More Than Expected
SlamOnline says that UK is getting more than they reckoned for with 2012 commit Archie Griffin: 1) could grow to 6-8, 2) best out of Arkansas since Joe Johnson, 3) "Rondo with a jump shot:, and 3) " Michael Jordan" (hyperbole but there it is).
Wild Weasel - January 26, 2012
Calipari knew what he was getting.
Trust me. :-)
Glenn Logan - January 26, 2012
I agree with you on this one Glenn...
The “Too Young to Win” argument is folly. No question the Kentucky teams of 2011 and 2010 had the talent to win. Point is, it’s difficult to run 6 straight against quality competition, senior-led or freshman-led.
I also agree with your weakness assessment in the front court depth. I think UK’s biggest concern in the tournament is what happens if UK draws a whistle mad crew for any contact by big men. It’s happened before and frankly the officials you get in the tournament is luck based, much like everything else about the tournament.
Remote Cardinal - January 26, 2012
True
Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. But it’s best to be both good and lucky when you are talking about a 6 game stretch. It’s called Madness for a reason. How else can some chick crush me in my office pool picking teams because she liked their mascot! :)
cthom - January 26, 2012
True
I’ve always said that the best team in the country can get through the first three rounds on talent. After that, luck becomes more and more of a factor. Actually, more an absence of bad luck than a presence of good. Sometimes the ball won’t go in the basket. Sometimes the other team can throw up its lunch and it goes in the basket. Sometimes you get officials that call the game totally opposite of what you’re accustomed to (e.g. a Big East team getting officials that call a close game). Sometimes you just don’t match up well with another team, even though you might match up great with a team that can beat them. If winning championships were easy, every team would win one every year (no, that’s not a typo).
UKCat - January 26, 2012
Yeah.
Three fouls on Anthony Davis with 15+ minutes to go and a 10 point deficit keep me up nights.
And you are completely right about the luck. It is a factor in every tournament.
Glenn Logan - January 26, 2012
New Bracketology: New #1
KU replaces Duke as #1 thus moving UK from MW to S, other #1’s: ’Cuse and OSU. Cards and Racers in MW and play in first round — chance for another Morehead.
Wild Weasel - January 26, 2012
I love it when they put us and UL in the same bracket......pipe dreams for CBS getting to show us twice in one year
Greg Alan Edwards - January 26, 2012
Why??? 'Cause UL can't get past the first round??
/snickers in shirt sleeve
EagleTDL - January 26, 2012
Well, they have won two in a row.
Badly needed, I might add.
Glenn Logan - January 26, 2012
We can't predict the future by looking at the past.
Apart from the simplest systems, of course. That’s a hard thing to accept. We hate uncertainty. It’s comforting to pretend we can figure these things out. But what you see when you look in the rear view mirror are the incomplete remains of a probability generating mechanism we don’t understand. Whenever an absolutely unpredictable event occurs, we like to look back and try to figure out how such a thing could possibly have happened. And without fail we find enough dots to fool ourselves into believing that it was truly predictable all along, and next time we won’t be fooled again.
Analyze all the stats you want. But don’t confuse that with the future. That’s why we play the games. That’s how FSU crushes UNC by 33. That’s how a young team wins the national championship. There is so much more complexity to life than what we can comfortably fit under a normal distribution. Whenever someone says X won’t happen because it’s never happened before, I have to laugh. Things that never happened before happen all the time.
Wheatgerm - January 26, 2012
Great comment.
Glenn Logan - January 26, 2012
In Other Words
Chaos theory applies to basketball as well as nearly everything else, or as Benoit Mandelbrot so aptly observed:
Then again the proverb so states:
Men plan, God laughs.
All the more reason to, as you correctly state, play the game.
Wild Weasel - January 26, 2012
Hey, don't bring that economics stuff in here...this is basketball
Seriously, I enjoyed the Taleb dig.
Next time, throw in some fractals!
wingke6 - January 26, 2012
Beyond chaos theory and Black Swans
or just plain statistics.
The bottom line is that in NCAA Basketball, unlike the NBA or MLB, you have one game or you’re done. Anything can happen. Last year’s game against UConn could have gone either way…there wasn’t a dimes worth of difference between the team’s performances…just breaks for which there is little to no predictive control.
It’s kind of like Billy Ball, over 162 games the percentages will work out to +10 games (or something like that). But, in a single playoff series, single game or single at-bat, there is no way to predict the outcome.
wingke6 - January 26, 2012
Soon, MLB will have some one-and-dones too!
kcgard2 - January 26, 2012
Speaking of the odyssey of Darnell Dodson
He wound up at U of Southern Miss (you know, in Hattiesburg), but then was dismissed on theft charges (Apr 2011): http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2011-04-29/southern-miss-dismisses-darnell-dodson-from-team
But wait, he evidently made appropriate restitution (Jan 2012): http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=320250151
wingke6 - January 26, 2012
Great pic of MKG-
It should be next to “confidence” in the dictionary…
iam4ukintn - January 26, 2012
Different year different team
I dont think you can compare this years team to last years fairly. I think as a core this team is working together better than last years and versus last years team we have a truebig man whos doing the work. Not to take anything away from “Jorts” because he did great, but Anthony Davis is consistently proving his worth. I see this years team as a more balanced team and I feel that they are ahead of where last years team was as far as understanding the plays and what to do when they have the ball. They also seem to be able to handle pressure games with the exception of the miscue in Indiana. When its tournament time thats what you need is a team that digs deep and adjusts at halftime. Last years team did that for sure, but you also have to look at the competition they had in the bracket. I dont think anyone can argue that they had the toughest road to the final four. So, id say alot depends on how they do during the SEC tourney and the hand their dealt as far as teams seeding and location. I expect a national championship game, possibly a repeat of the 96 title game. Go Cats!!!
Catfan1982 - January 27, 2012 via Android app
Yet, this team has one nagging issue/weakness...
Some teams have learned to play a sagging zone that “flexes” in and out as our ball handler attacks the middle, making us shoot open semi- 2-pointers or contested 3’s. Our nature is to look for the open 3 and we seem to get frustrated when it’s not immediately available, sometimes setling on a semi-open three instead of patiently moving the ball around more to exploit a defender who isn’t 100% on top of the ball motion. Patience would allow us to find the “crack” left by good patient ball movement, to identify a lazy (or slower reacting) defender. It comes off looking sometimes like we can’t attack their zone efficiently.
So far (we’ve) figured it out, but I dread that one game where it appears the opponent’s defense has finally got our number (like to WVA in 2010) and we begin to panic without calmly stepping back and realizing the issue; then exploiting the weakness that it leaves us. This is all keeping the guys confident and calm and thinking at the top of their games.
Thomas Mario Adams III - January 28, 2012
This team shoots the three too well to get beat by a zone. They don't shoot it often because driving the lane
and throwing the ball upo for AD to go get it is Calipari’s DDMO is all it’s glory. But when they need threes, they can hit threes……
Greg Alan Edwards - January 28, 2012
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