Andy Lyons - Getty Images
This man could probably get even Duke to play some defense.
There was an intriguing question posed by UK1972 in the South Carolina DSS about how the presence of Coach Calipari affects the Wildcat defense from the first half to the second.
How does UK defensive % compare when they are playing defense in front of Cal...as opposed to the half when they are not? Offensively the same question?
I think this is a fascinating question because it seems obvious that a team should play better when they are on the same side of the court as their head coach - on defense in the 1st half and offense in the 2nd half. This question is particularly apropos as UK prepares to play in one of the unique venues in college sports Saturday night.
Fortunately, thanks to the DSS I was able to easily put together the relevant numbers and look at how the UK offensive and defensive efficiency changes from the 1st half to the second.
Given that every team begins the game playing defense in front of their coach and finishes the game playing offense in front of him, we would expect the following trends:
Looks a lot like the offense chart, and conventional wisdom bears out once again. In 16 of UK's games the defensive efficiency was better in the first half than the second. Interestingly, the most recent games have seen a rather steady defensive performance in the first half while the second half performance has continued to vary greatly from game to game. I suspect that there is a bit of a late-second half let down in these games (such as at the very end of the South Carolina game) that skews the numbers a bit. Not having Calipari on this side of the floor probably contributes to that let down.
Now to be sure there are A LOT of other factors that go into a change in performance between the first and second halves, including but certainly not limited to
Image of Calipari from the AP/Getty Images licensed to SBN
Overall, the UK offensive efficiency improves by 10.5 points from the first half to the second or by about 9.4%. The defensive efficiency increases (that is, gets worse) by a little bit more: 12.4 points or 15.4% in the second half. There is no adjustment for competition in those numbers, but when I limit it to SEC games and the big non-conference opponents (Kansas, UNC, Indiana, Louisville) you get the basically the same change in offense and defense (+11.0 and +14.3 respectively).
What does that mean for the Vandy game? Obviously it's important to play well in both halves, but keep an eye on UK's defense in the first half. If the Cats are still able to hear Cal from the baseline then I think they will put together a typically excellent defensive half. If not, it could be a long night.
2 recs | 20 comments
JL, up late?
What, no date? : )
Seriously speaking, thanks for this.
BigSkyCat - February 11, 2012
nah, just wanted to get it up well enough before the game ;-)
JLeverenz - February 11, 2012
Another variable to consider
is half time adjustments on offense and defense.
kywineman - February 11, 2012
yeah
I mentioned those above, but I don’t think there is any way to systematically account for them. That’s the kind of thing that can really only be accounted for by observation.
JLeverenz - February 11, 2012
JL, Outstanding analysis – Rec’d! Nothing better than answering an interesting question.
You actually may have a better answer for differentiating between the half-time adj. and coach proximity than you’ve stated.
The issue is addressed based on the anticipated performance variance in the second half. It is reasonable to suggest all team issues, both offensive and defensive, are addressed during half-time. If those adjustments were the effect we were observing in the 2nd half, both offense and defense would show improvement. That we see improvement on offense and diminished defense in the 2nd half by both teams throughout the course of the season would seem to provide statistical results in support of the Bench End Hypothesis. In-Game Coaching Matters!
TeamWeaver - February 11, 2012
could be
I’d like to know more about how other teams look in this fashion before drawing more conclusions. I might send an email to Ken Pomeroy to see if his database is able to do efficiency by halves.
JLeverenz - February 11, 2012
interesting stats
it never ceases to amaze me all the work you guys put into this…….thanks JL
Bluehound - February 11, 2012
Thanks Bluehound!
JLeverenz - February 11, 2012
nice!
I remember the thread like it was yesterday. ha!
Cal has some hefty lungs…he’s going to need them tonight. When I watch the games it appears at times that Cal is ready to insert himself into the lineup. When UK gets a defensive rebound he’s right there on the floor exhorting the team to “GO! GO!” Once he almost tripped a ref who was running down the sideline to keep up with the action and didn’t see Cal out there….wonder if he would have gotten a tech if the two had collided? Kind of a petty move I suspect but plausible I guess.
Thank you JLev for crunching the numbers. It was a refreshing post to wake up to ;j
bluecrip - February 11, 2012
Thanks bluecrip
Cal is definitely animated on the sidelines – he’s almost a show all to himself ;-)
I hope we never have to find out what would happen if he “accidentally” tripped a ref!
JLeverenz - February 11, 2012
Interesting question.
Interesting answer. It seems that he could communicate much better with them when they are close, and it looks like that is the case.
Glenn Logan - February 11, 2012
In some ways the result is "Move along, nothing to see here"
It matches up pretty well with what you would expect. I think the more interesting aspect is the difference between the 1st half and 2nd half efficiency. I would like to know how other teams stack up in this respect, but that’s a much more involved project.
JLeverenz - February 11, 2012
Love the graphic
The “other” coach reminds me of an old Saturday Night Live skit. “Oh no………Mr. Bill”.
Given some of the big swings in the numbers, I’m not sure that the vicinity of 10% overall means all that much. On blowouts, of course D will suffer in the 2nd half when you get the end of bench players in. Still a very nice analysis JL.
sweasyf - February 11, 2012
I wanted to do that specifically for the "other coach" graphic ;-)
I’m really not sure how much of this can be attributed solely to Cal on the same side of the team as opposed to other factors. Letting up on defense in the second half of a blowout is definitely a factor along with the other ones mentioned. I’m not sure how to separate them out.
JLeverenz - February 11, 2012
Offensively, I think teams have settled down by the second half
Teams tend to be a little tighter at the beginning of the game and by the second half they should have a better feel for what they’re facing. Additionally, having the opportunity to make halftime adjustments ought to improve offensive performance, provided the coaches know what they’re doing. But of course, you would think the same would hold true for the defense. Nice information as always JLev. We really get spoiled at A Sea of Blue.
chicagoblues - February 11, 2012
The defense might suffer a little
from first half success. The opposing team will have to adjust and try something different in the 2nd half. If that adjustment is successful then the defense has to make adjustments in the real game situation which can be very difficult to do.
kywineman - February 11, 2012
Thanks chicagoblues!
JLeverenz - February 11, 2012
BlueMan#1
I think you hit the nail on the head squarely. We ARE spoiled by a Sea of Blue and, by the Cats. It is just SO MUCH fun to watch them this season, especially when Cal let’s Jones and Davis play “Lob & Dunk” ! This team will find a way, they adjust but most importantly, they don’t get rattled.
BlueMan#1 - February 15, 2012
Seriously, JLev......you dont have a wife and kids do you?
No soccer, basketball, archery, wrestling, PTO, youth group, none of that do you?
Hehehe……we gotta get you a hobby dude……next thing you know you will be charting Calipari’s suit and tie selections…..
Nice job BTW…..
Greg Alan Edwards - February 11, 2012
Isn't that how some of the ladies fill out their brackets?
kywineman - February 12, 2012
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