After a satisfying victory over the Vanderbilt Commodores at Memorial Gym Saturday, the Cats will take the coming weekdays off to prepare for their final five regular season games. With a pause in the schedule, let's take a minute to reset where Kentucky is and where they'd like to be over the coming weeks.
1. At 11-0 in the conference with three home games remaining, the Kentucky Wildcats are a lead pipe cinch to win the SEC and take the #1 seed in its post-season tournament. UK's closest competitor, the Florida Gators, were swept this week but remain second overall at 7-3. Sure, the Cats have loftier goals, but winning the league still bears mention. You can go ahead and plan your SEC tournament weekend now, as Kentucky will play at noon on each of March 9, 10 and 11 as long as it advances.
2. With the Ohio St. Buckeye's loss to the Michigan St. Spartans yesterday, there is now some separation between Syracuse, Kentucky and the rest of the candidates for #1 NCAA seeds. The Missouri Tigers are looking good at 23-2 overall with recent wins over Kansas and Baylor. Beyond that, the picture is muddled, with Ohio State, North Carolina, Duke, Kansas in front. Despite 2 losses this week, Baylor is still in the mix at 21-4 and Sparty's win at Ohio State puts it in the conversation at 20-5.
That's a lot of tradition at the top. Very cool.
3. Assuming UK doesn't collapse and remains on the one seed line, my next question is who ends up #2 in its bracket. The NCAA has not done the Cats any favors since Cal took over as Head Coach. That isn't an accusation, it is a fact. I've have one eye on this as a potential storyline. That is why I'm rooting for North Carolina to right the ship and earn a #1 seed. Yes, I know we've already beaten the Tar Heels and are much better than we were when we first played. Personally, though, I want no part of them before the Final Four. UNC is still the second most talented team in the country and starts 3-4 NBA-ready players. Those teams almost always do well in the tournament. If the NCAA is looking to give UK the finger, no better way than to put UNC in our bracket.
Earning the #1 overall seed would help Kentucky's cause in this regard. Despite their #1 ranking, Joe Lunardi at ESPN currently has UK as the #2 overall seed in the tournament, behind Syracuse. To me, that is a joke. Syracuse did not play a road game outside of the Big East, and though they are 6-1 on the road in conference, only one of those wins came against a team with a winning league record (Cincinnati).
4. In order to be #1 overall, Kentucky may have to run the table. Syracuse certainly has a chance to do so. Interestingly, Jim Boeheim's squad's toughest remaining test will likely come Monday night at 7:00pm at the Yum Center against Louisville. So I'll be rooting hard for little brother for once. The Orange also travel to UCONN later this month. There is also the Big East Tournament in Madison Square. For my money, the league is down this year, but Syracuse will probably get a boost if it successfully runs that gauntlet.
5. After last night's performance at Memorial, I'd put the Cats' chances of sweeping their last five SEC games then winning the conference tournament at slightly more than even money. Mississippi State and Florida both suffered home losses to inferior teams yesterday. The Cats will be 6+ point favorites in each of those road games. Of course anything can happen, but a home loss or what would essentially be a home loss in New Orleans during the SEC Tournament look increasingly unlikely. If I told you the over/under for Kentucky losses prior to the NCAA tournament was 1.5, where would you put your money?
6. All of this is well and good, but this team is ultimately going to be judged by what happens in March. With the caveat that Coach Cal has done an amazing job with this team, I have some unsolicited advice for him. Kentucky has excelled in part by avoiding foul trouble and major injury. Alas, those things aren't a given. Over the season's coming weeks, I'd like to see him lengthen the bench a bit. A tough tournament game may necessitate meaningful minutes from Eloy Vargas or a hot hand from Kyle Wiltjer. I'd put a win in jeopardy now to give them some crunch time run. Carving out a few minutes for Twany Beckham here and there would also give our stars fresher legs come tournament time and lessen the chance of something disastrous happening.
7. Finally, a semi-related public service announcement. If you are making provisional plans to attend the Final Four and found that New Orleans hotels are pretty well booked, consider the Mississippi Coast as an alternate home base. Biloxi is an 80 mile mostly highway drive and rooms in the nice casinos are both available and reasonable.
Follow me on Twitter @AlexScutchfield
1 recs | 50 comments
Well, after looking in on Lunardi....
Now I know where fab-SU-lous came from…..lol…..
that’s about all I got out of it
Greg Alan Edwards - February 12, 2012
Does the overall #1 seed still have to play
in that stupid play-in game or did they switch it to the #64 and #65 ranked teams?
hoboat33 - February 12, 2012
Here is last years bracket .... I assume this year will be the same
There are 4 play in games ….I think the top two overall seeds get the #16 seed play-in winners. As for why two teams play for an 11 seed and two teams play for a 12 seed … maybe our resident bracketologists can chime in … these might be the last four at-large teams to make the tournament … and thud have a higher ranking than what the #16’s do.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket
ukcris - February 12, 2012
thud = thus
ukcris - February 12, 2012
Appreciate it.
Forgot they went to 4 play-in games. Unfortunately, the almighty dollar will eventually get us to a 64 play in games. Sheesh.
hoboat33 - February 13, 2012
Comprimise
The 16 seeds are typically from the weakest and poorest conferences. Most of the at-large bids go to the power 6 conferences, though the PAC-12 is doing a good job of bucking this trend. So under this system, four at-large, and most likely high-major or good mid-major schools, get a play-in game as well as four low-major to lower mid-major schools.
I am using low, mid, high major terms as descriptive of conferences, not individual teams. Belmont (kenpom – 23; LRMC – 12; seeded 15th in most projections) is a good team, but not their conference, A-Sun.
GoLightning - February 13, 2012
Not all of the clowns are in the circus...
After seeing Parrish in his finest apparel and believing vandy would win and now this from Jo boy.. too bad Barnum and Bailey will not be coming to town before the final four…
FOXTRAIL - February 12, 2012
Chung - dung..
With the Cats up 34 to 20 and vandy with the ball, chung-dung bangs a fist off the back of Teague’s head, knocking him to the floor… Of course, greene and co. didn’t call a foul.. but MKG did as he put a forearm to the nose of chung-dung and dropped him on his back… I got your back bro !!!
FOXTRAIL - February 12, 2012
Here's a link to the YouTube video of Tchiengang foul on Marquis Teague
(Link)
TeamWeaver - February 12, 2012
Sorry if this has been linked already somewhere....
This is very good piece about Anthony Davis and breaks down his blocks into all kinds of categories….
Anthony Davis’ Block Party
SevenRings - February 12, 2012
amazing.....thanks seven
Bluehound - February 12, 2012
I just wonder how much time this guy had to spend to break down his blocks
into so many categories and quite frankly why…lol
SevenRings - February 12, 2012
In the old days, when you had to crank the matrix by hand to do statistical analysis, ...
sample sizes were kept small because of the time it took to do the actual calculations. Now, with computers and statistical software packages, it’s the time and access necessary to build the data set that limits analysis. I’d guess he took a minimum of 3 hours per game; he used 25 games to build his sample – which translates into 75-100 hours. Fanaticism at its finest!
TeamWeaver - February 12, 2012
Basketball is a drug...
and he’s a junkie, just like a lot of other people I know.
kydamcat - February 12, 2012
luv stats!!!
KYCatwoman - February 13, 2012
it was impressive
Bluehound - February 12, 2012
Hey guys, glad you enjoyed the piece
It really didn’t take nearly that long to finish, despite the scope. I’d say roughly four hours of total work, with a good deal of that spent writing everything up and making sense of what I had.
But yes, I did everything by hand from all 25 game logs initially, then translated the raw data to a spreadsheet and things became much easier. The fact that AD has blocked a shot in every game made this entirely possible. Without that, I’m not sure I would have bothered doing this.
Dave Ryan - February 12, 2012
So you didn't actually watch the games?
Still impressive!
I stand corrected.
TeamWeaver - February 12, 2012
No, not to get the data itself. I’ve watched Kentucky play in full many, many times this year and noticed he blocked a ton of shots right after halftime, so I figured I’d explore that a bit.
Dave Ryan - February 12, 2012
Still, you'd make a great addition to the BBN.
Thanks for the insights!
TeamWeaver - February 12, 2012
oh, and, thanks for droppin by
Bluehound - February 12, 2012
Thanks for taking the time to put this together....
I am not sure I have seen such a detailed breakdown such as this before. Pretty fascinating!
SevenRings - February 12, 2012
+ 1
Bluehound - February 12, 2012
About the drop off in late minute blocks..
although the reasons you mention for the lack of blocks in final minutes of the half are valid, like AD watching the end of a victory from the bench, etc. i think you leave out one of the more obvious, the opposing player not wanting to have the ball rammed back down in their face again , and passing it back out if AD appears to be anywhere near.
Very impressive analysis indeed, and very welcome, even if I suspect your motivation. LOL
blenheim bard - February 12, 2012
Thus some accomodation and adjustment must be
made based on learning curve?
kywineman - February 12, 2012
Or to quote Jimmy D., they are stuck on stupid.
kywineman - February 12, 2012
Here's a Ken Pomeroy Blog Post,...
about Anthony’s ability to make blocks yet avoid fouls. (Link)
TeamWeaver - February 12, 2012
Good stuff....thanks for sharing
SevenRings - February 12, 2012
more good stuff......thanks
Bluehound - February 12, 2012
Agree on the lengthen bench...
But after what Michigan State did to Ohio State at their house yesterday, that’s the team I do NOT want to see in a final eight matchup. With their front line personnell and relentless defensive pressure, they might just be a (on a given day ala West Virginia) team that could bring down our best laid plans. Hell, forget the WV game… just remember some fairly recent NCAA Michigan State games we’ve played. This MS team is just like those MS teams were.
As for NC… bring it! I think we own them.
Thomas Mario Adams III - February 12, 2012
Come March
I will promise that UNC or Michigan State will be the 2 seed in our bracket.
Zoso- - February 12, 2012
After the road we had to take last year-
They should give us a break… If they don’t we will just have to beat them all…
iam4ukintn - February 12, 2012
good write up Alex....thanks
Bluehound - February 12, 2012
MSU matches up with UK better than any top 10 team.
They are taking on Izzo’s personality… They will be a tough out in the tourney… They frustrated OSU in Columbus yesterday… They are deep and have a great defense… Green is a beast. I think he is a tougher match for us than Sullinger…
big-cuz fan - February 12, 2012
And to think at one time he was going to come here.
kywineman - February 12, 2012
Agree
I have to concur about the talent at MSU and Izzo is a great coach. Stil, we have to take on all comers and I think UK is up to the challenge.
BarryM - February 12, 2012 via mobile
We've played some very physical teams.
We’ll be ready.
Wheatgerm - February 12, 2012
Rondo A Triple Double
32 points, 15 assists, 10 rebounds. Green wins over the Rose-less Bulls.
Wild Weasel - February 12, 2012
I hope
this team is ultimately going to be judged by what happens in April.
Wheatgerm - February 12, 2012
and hopefully the end results will be this.....
Do they still make the sears trophy for basketball?
UKWildcats #1 - February 12, 2012
Alex
“The NCAA has not done the Cats any favors since Cal took over as Head Coach. That isn’t an accusation, it is a fact.”
First of all, thanks Alex. As to the comment above, this has not been the MO just in Cal.‘s tenure. I can remember this “seeding bias” since way back in the ’70’s.
UK has almost always had the toughest seed and or venue as far back as I can remember.
bigboyblue - February 12, 2012
Ironically...
it was Ohio State who got the raw deal in last year’s tourney seeding, with their own Athletic Director as head of the seeding and selection committee. The overall Number 1 seed would have to face a legitimate 2 seed (earlier than any team) in the sweet sixteen instead of chomping on a 4 seed as is predicted. In another year, it may have been him who got fired instead of the football coach. (In kentucky. I believe it is punishable by flogging…).
Though I wasn’t happy either, it still comes down to… if you wanna be the best… you gotta beat the best.
Thomas Mario Adams III - February 12, 2012
They did get the royal screwing last year
but had a good run. Lemme see……… who did they do down to?
I saw someone on a thread had mentioned something to the effect that the selection committee would make the Tarheels a #2 seed in our bracket to tweak us. Shoot, that would never happen. They’d never do that to North Carolina.
hoboat33 - February 13, 2012
Agreed!
Perhaps they’ll match UNC with Cuse since they match up best with them on paper. If Duke stays a 2 seed, the selection committee is likely to go for the big money game with UK-Duke, thinking Coach K would be the one to sit Calipari (and the $$$), if anyone could (I hope they don’t look at those past UK-MSU tilts?!?). Never in a million years would they make Duke have to beat them as their 2 seed.
I’d love to get Mizzou as our 2, or even another shot at Kansas. Worst case is MSU, OSU, or the Heels. I think we bury Syracuse in a 6’10" Nor’easter coming from the Windy City.
Thomas Mario Adams III - February 13, 2012
We get MSU, bank on it.
They would have a good chance of taking us out which would thrill the NCAA, but they are on the bad boy list as well so the NCAA would not be trying to help them out.
kywineman - February 13, 2012
Hardest Bracket
It seems like the number one overall seed has had a more difficult path the past two seasons. I think most agreed that an Ohio St. U. had the most difficult last year with both UK and UNC. In 2010, KU and UK were the top two and I think had the two most difficult (going from memory). I remember many thinking that West Va may have been a one seed, so instead of being 5th overall and playing against the 4th overall (Duke), they were put in the 7th slot. I don’t recall what was supposed to be tough for KU as they didn’t make it that far.
GoLightning - February 13, 2012
Good thoughts Alex
I still like OSU for a #1 seed with the winner of the Big 12 as the 4th. I don’t see any way UNC or Duke get one at this point.
JLeverenz - February 13, 2012
If either UNC or Duke wins out
and OSU drops one or two more, it could get interesting. If OSU drops to a 2 then we will probably get them in our bracket.
kywineman - February 13, 2012
If so,
let’s hope Vargas is the one who delivers the “Spalding treatment” to Sullinger’s chest this year.
Acdixon - February 13, 2012
Lunardi's latest has
OSU as a 2 in our bracket. Didn’t have to wait as long as I thought.
kywineman - February 13, 2012
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