Joe Robbins - Getty Images
Kentucky's length is a problem for almost everybody.
John Clay has a good article today on five teams that could beat Kentucky this year in the NCAA tournament. He and I agree on these five as the most likely threats to defeat Kentucky. They are the Syracuse Orange, Ohio St. Buckeyes, Michigan St. Spartans, Kansas Jayhawks, and North Carolina Tar Heels.
You can read more about John's analysis at the link above. I'm going to give you a one-paragraph reason why these teams are included, and why UK will ultimately prevail. Then, we will move on to three other teams that are not in my top five, but deserve to be in the conversation.
I'm also going to rank them in order of which team would be the most difficult out for Kentucky, not necessarily the team that is most likely to win the NCAA tournament.
Ohio St. is here by virtue of the fact that they are an outstanding defensive squad that can score, much like Kentucky. The Buckeyes sport the gaudiest defensive numbers in the land, have good depth at key positions and are plenty athletic. They also execute with great precision in the half court. Where they are weak is shooting the ball from the perimeter, and free throw shooting, and they have no answer for the length and shot-blocking of Kentucky. But Aaron Craft would give Marquis Teague no end of trouble, and right now, Teague's good play is a big factor in how UK is playing.
Most of you probably expected Syracuse to be here, but Tom Izzo's team has shaken off a rocky start early to become one of the most dominant defensive basketball teams in the land, as well as a dynamite offensive rebounding team. They have on of the nation's outstanding seniors in Draymond Green, and Branden Dawson is a beast on the boards. Where they fall short is shooting the three, and a very high rate of turnovers. They also have no answer for Kentucky's length.
Syracuse is a deep, talented, and well-coached basketball team that can run and defend with the best of them. They have great length, shot blocking, and outstanding athleticism. They are one of two teams in America that actually matches up equally to Kentucky at every position. But Syracuse lacks consistent 3-point shooting, and remind me very much of 2010 UK. They are going to go cold sometime late in March from outside, and that's likely to be their undoing. They also rely on a zone defense, which rarely wins championships.
There is very little difference between North Carolina and Syracuse, except North Carolina doesn't play a zone. The Tar Heels are at least as talented as Kentucky at every position, and they are even longer than the Wildcats, although they are not nearly as good at erasing shots. Where the Tar Heels fall short is on the free throw line and from the 3-point arc, where they have become remarkably unreliable, particularly in conference.
Since we last faced Kansas, they have gone in the other direction from North Carolina and become one of the best teams in the country led by Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor. The Jayhawks are an outstanding defensive squad that can do it all, and Taylor is a double-double machine that never disappoints offensively. Where Kansas falls down is a failure to draw many fouls and, like many of the other teams above, vulnerability from the 3-point line. Kansas also tends to put teams on the line too much, and has no answer for Kentucky's overall length.
Other teams that could be in the discussion:
Missouri is this year's Villanova Wildcats of a few years back -- a small-ball team that uses their quickness and athleticism to great advantage, as well as dead-eye shooting from everywhere that makes them the most efficient offensive team in the country. But Missouri's lack of offensive rebounding, their overall average defense, and the fact that teams constructed like this rarely go past the Elite Eight argue against their inclusion. The length of UK would be an unmanageable problem for them.
Baylor was a team with all the buzz earlier this season. They have great size, skill, and athleticism with Perry Jones III, Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller leading the way. The Bears can do it all -- run, shoot, rebound and defend. However, Baylor has been unable to beat either Kansas and Missouri in two tries, and both those teams are inferior to Kentucky. Baylor turns the ball over way too much, and allows too many offensive rebounds to be likely to defeat UK, and they have no answer for Anthony Davis.
As always, Mike Krzyzewski's team is always in the March discussion, and some have elevated Duke to a #1 seed due to their surprising late-game comeback against North Carolina in the Dean Dome. But that game says way more about North Carolina than Duke, and while everyone can agree it was an impressive comeback, the Blue Devils were clearly an inferior team that got very hot against a weak perimeter defense. Duke suffers from far and away the worst defense in this discussion, and while deadly from the three and very efficient offensively, allow far too many offensive rebounds and lack any depth at all inside. UK's defense would smother them much like the Florida St. Seminoles did.
Well, those are my picks, and that's the way I see our major foes at this admittedly early pre-NCAA point in time. Right now, I think Kentucky has to be among the favorites to win, but there is still a lot of games to play before we come close to seeing the shape of the NCAA tournament field, and who might sit in opposition to NCAA Title #8.
Your thoughts?
1 recs | 46 comments
Good analysis
There are probably a few sleeper teams (Georgetown, Indiana, Wisconsin) out there that could give the Cats lots of trouble on any given night, but I think you nailed the primary difficult competition.
jdogblue - February 15, 2012
A team that goes nuts from 3 and can offensive rebound is the biggest threat
Granted, UNC and Syracuse match up the best and could beat UK on a given night. However, a team who tries to get their points in the paint is going to struggle against UK.
btcoop71 - February 15, 2012
In the end, nobody has an answer for Uni...
Having said that, Michigan State and Baylor worry me the most, with UNC and KU thrown in there too… UNC and KU have great talent, and it’s tough to beat a team like that twice in the same year!
Good writeup!
EagleTDL - February 15, 2012
Syracuse......I can see it being a battle simply because we have not seen them or what they can do
against an unknown opponent. It depends on foul trouble. We don’t have foul trouble, their depth never becomes an issue.
OSU…….has issues…..they are struggling with things lately that they should not be struggling with. We have the personnel to play through what they can do, and we can shut them down
Michigan State…..is the wildcard here. No one knows just how good they will be by Tourney time. They seem to be growning and improving at a rate much like our own.
Kansas…..not enough firepower…..and not near enough defense.Unless they have a big night, they are not the threat.
Mizzou…..also a possible wildcard….and with the possibility of now getting a #1 seed…..they could be a team to reckon with.
The rest are just the rest…..possibilities, yes…..probabilities…..no
Greg Alan Edwards - February 15, 2012
You are sleeping on Kansas.....
SevenRings - February 15, 2012
That should be #4 adjusted defense...not sure what is going on with this site lol
SevenRings - February 15, 2012
I didnt want to come off as being matter of fact, I just don't think Kansas D can keep up with us.....
I have seen them play about 6 times this year and they have struggled with their D in every game
Greg Alan Edwards - February 15, 2012
Kansas has a very solid defense.
They are better than they were before when we played them.
Glenn Logan - February 15, 2012
Solid, I would agree with.....spectacular...no...
and that is what it is going to take to beat us…..spectacular D……IMNSHO
Greg Alan Edwards - February 15, 2012
I don't think that's right.
Vandy’s defense was anything but, and they took us to the wire.
Glenn Logan - February 15, 2012
But how much of that is attributed to a hostile environment and a lousy venue??
Not to mention the history that UK has with that place….
Greg Alan Edwards - February 15, 2012
+1
I agree.. Cuse is what worries me the most.
Viks - February 15, 2012
Calipari On Mike & Mike
In 15 minutes. Will wrap his comments.
Wild Weasel - February 15, 2012
Maybe I need to leave the office and run a few errands.
bob in bg - February 15, 2012
Mike & Mike Wrap
Lead subject was today’s televised practice: Coach trying to break up a week, bad decision by giving too much time off prior IU, players become bored with routine; talk about AD, compared with Camby, AD ahead at this stage, stronger than he looks especially hips down, made 49 3’s in 5 minutes and will shoot more in games, has guard mentality thus makes others better; also spoke of Jeremy Lin and how players slip through cracks. Great exposure for Blue!
Wild Weasel - February 15, 2012
that is very exciting about the three's made.
I can’t tell you now many times I have screamed at my tv screen when he is all alone at the top of the arc to “shoot it!”. Obviously, given his lack of made three’s in games thus far and that we have quite a few other options to go to that might be better this probably isn’t the wisest decision. It’s just that boy, if he could hit a few of those in games it would force people to come out and guard him way out there in no man’s land and open up the key. I like it when the key is wide open for our offense.
BigSkyCat - February 15, 2012
Where Should Shabazz Go?
Lost Letterman debates.
Wild Weasel - February 15, 2012
Troy Williams To Decide In May
2013 5* has narrowed to five including UK but UNC leads.
Wild Weasel - February 15, 2012
Calipari Never Stops
UK’s Energizer Bunny spent last night in TX watching 2013’s Julius Randle and the Harrison twins.
Wild Weasel - February 15, 2012
He never stops
When he attended a birthday party for Muhammad Ali (after a game), he was promoting the Kentucky Effect I’m sure.
Last night? It was Valentines Day Coach!!
We would have allowed one night. ’-)
a2d2 - February 15, 2012
Withey The KU Difference
After reading Clay’s piece and this one I can comment — the only thing I would add that the primary reason for KU’s turnaround is the emergence of Jeff Withey who has advanced from an after thought to arguably the best center in Big 12 and one of the best in NCAA. If you watched KU vs KSU Monday night you saw him come within a blocked shot (18-11-9) of achieving a triple-double. Plus he’s an exceptional FT shooter (85%) and while listed as 7-0 he’s actually closer to 7-2.
Wild Weasel - February 15, 2012
I agree
The couple of games I’ve watched lately he has made a “Jorts-like” transformation from early season.
cthom - February 15, 2012
Withey is this year's Josh Harrellson
Kansas is probably the team that worries me the most.
JLeverenz - February 15, 2012
Me too. Not Syracuse. Not OSU. Kansas.
bob in bg - February 15, 2012
we might just get the UK-Kansas championship that everyone expected in 2010
That would be some game.
JLeverenz - February 15, 2012
It's a real possibilty
SevenRings - February 15, 2012
Can't argue with any of those 5....they are all legitimate contenders
Baylor is a paper tiger.
SevenRings - February 15, 2012
NO TEA
Can beat UK muwahahahahaha
CHAMPIONSHIP!!!
HansonManCrush - February 15, 2012 via mobile
Yes, nor no coffee neither
BCinVA - February 15, 2012
and don't even think about Lattes - they've got no shot at all
JLeverenz - February 15, 2012
Talk to 10 different people and get
10 completely different lists.
This type of crap at this time of the year is totally counter productive, In no way does it promote support for the local team(s) and in most cases simply adds to an already anxiety promoting atmosphere.
Should such “comparisons” be ignored? Of course not but why must “writers” who consider themselves expert scrawl this stuff across any wall available simply to fill a column?
I read the comments of a multitude of writers and “fans” (in Kentucky they are called asst. coaches) who note the attributes of almost every school east of the big river yet see no mention of that little school in Las Vegas. Curious!
Blujean - February 15, 2012
Then 9 of them are fools. :-)
If you don’t like what I write, you don’t have to read this site. There are lots of others.
Glenn Logan - February 15, 2012
He might have been referring to John Clay's article.
kywineman - February 15, 2012
Perhaps so, but isn't he lumping me in there with him?
Glenn Logan - February 16, 2012
Well I certainly don't agree with him.
One could make an argument that comparisons of this year’s team to those of previous years is an exercise with no value, but I think that looking at potential opponents in the tournament with an analytical eye towards their ability to match up with us is all a part of this season’s story/fantasy.
kywineman - February 16, 2012
Quick rundown...
so I reserve the right to change my mind later. lol
Syracuse is a quality team that could beat Kentucky if Lamb, Miller and Wiltjer can’t hit from outside. Syracuse likes to push you wayyyy out on the floor with their zone. If they play the Cats like that we will beat them by double digits. Miller and MKG would have a field day around the freethrow line. I have actually been shocked several times by the hole they leave in the middle of the floor.
Ohio State has a quality defense as well but Big Ten games haven’t exposed the weakness in their defense – they play BELOW the rim. On the offensive end they really miss Lighty from last season. Buford is a good scorer for them but they do not have the inside-out game they enjoyed last season. Sullinger rebounds by creating space. Our length negates that. The key matchup in a game against the Buckeyes would be Kraft and Teague.
Kansas is making strides and Withey is really coming on. They could be trouble for anyone but I think we have too many weapons.
Missouri is a fun team to watch but they suffer against teams that can rebound. A lot of what they do is countered by simply taking care of the ball and denying them breaks and open lanes to the basket. We do both pretty well.
Duke is a bad defensive team and they also play below the rim for the most part. I think Duke is the most favorable matchup of any of the teams on this list. Most favorable for the Cats that is.
North Carolina is underachieving so far. They have been solid but not spectacular. Their injury situation hasn’t helped. Having said that, they are still one of the two teams on this list that I really wouldn’t want to meet in the tournament. Zeller is sneaky good.
I haven’t seen enough of Baylor to give a solid opinion. They have looked disorganized and on the verge of out of control in the two games I have seen. They are athletic though.
Michigan State really outworked Ohio State in their last matchup. They are tough and Izzo seems to get the best out of his guys in the worst situations. They are impressive to me and the other team I would hate to see in our bracket.
I think Kentucky is the most complete team in the hunt this year. They don’t have any glaring weaknesses and they have about a dozen different ways to beat you. If you try to muddy the game against them, you are just going to lose an ugly game. They teams that have had success are the teams that have gone at them instead of trying to scheme. Anybody can beat anybody in the tournament, but Kentucky has the team to compete with anyone.
All of this is just speculation however. We have no idea how anyone will actually handle the pressure of win or go home. Fun to kill an hour on a hump day but not much else.
jbt36 - February 15, 2012
After watching UL vs the Cuse, I think it may have been one of Pitino's worse coached games.
Syracuse left enough space at the free throw to pitch a circus tent. Repeatedly they passed to Dieng who clanged shot after shot or made bad passes. Why not run him to the basket and feed a pure shooter in there. We would have so many options with that much space and Davis and Jones could crash the boards for put backs.
kywineman - February 15, 2012
Open Thread For Televised Practice?
Hope so, needed.
Wild Weasel - February 15, 2012
Yeah.
Although I have to admit, I thought about not doing it. Seems a little ridiculous to me.
I admire Cal for doing this as a recruiting tool, which it is, but I have seen UK practices (more than one has been posted on many videos) and I probably will only spare this one a passing glance.
Glenn Logan - February 15, 2012
I am kind of in the same boat...could take it or leave (as far as viewing goes)
Plus, Arsenal v AC Milan are playing in the Champions League at the same time. So will probably watch that match.
SevenRings - February 15, 2012
Watched Arsenal and Milan while on the treadmill
and nearly got sick. That was simply terrible.
darkandbloody@gmail.com - February 15, 2012
It was a romp...big time
SevenRings - February 15, 2012
I haven't seen any
So I’ll watch out of interest of seeing something I haven’t seen before. Plus I’m stuck at school anyway, so why not?
JLeverenz - February 15, 2012
Here is The Question Then For Me
Kentucky gets a #1 Seed. Of these teams (I think any of which but maybe Syracuse could wind up on the #2 Line) who would you most like to see in the bracket as number 2? Who would you like to see least?
Most for Me—-Duke. I think we match up well and I want to play them!
Also wouldn’t mind Mizzou—I think our length hurts them
Least—- North Carolina —The only team that takes UK to seven games in an NBA format.
On any given night, any of these teams can get the “W” against any of the others.
LyricSmith - February 15, 2012
Duke, definitely.
At least out of the ones above.
Glenn Logan - February 15, 2012
On any given night,
most anyone can beat anyone, but…jbt36 is right on target. The only teams that really concern me are SU, MSU, and UNC. All for different reasons, SU because they do match up well, MSU because they can be so physical, and UNC because they are so talented and they sometimes play defense.
Pearl had it right however, the best odds are if you play a zone in a dome.
darkandbloody@gmail.com - February 15, 2012
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