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Kentucky Wildcat Basketball: 2010 v. 2012- Who wins?

Last night the Kentucky Wildcats put a thrashing on the ostensibly homestanding South Carolina Gamecocks, 86-52. It was the third straight colossal beatdown for the Cats, who'd won their last two games by a collective 49 point margin. Things are clicking on all cylinders. If the SEC coaches and writers were to honestly hand out post season awards tomorrow, the Cats could argue that all six of its top players deserve to be first or second team all conference. Outside of an on occasional lapse in 3 point defense, this team has no discernible weakness. Things are going awfully well. With seven regular season games left, and Kentucky sitting at 23-1, its hard not to compare this year's squad to the talent laden 2009-2010 team. Led by the incomparable John Wall and Demarcus Cousins, that squad finished 35-3, with its only blemishes being two road SEC losses and a heartbreaking Elite 8 defeat at the hands of West Virginia.

Any comparison between the two teams has to start with a caveat. This year's SEC schedule is heavily backloaded. Kentucky still has to face the Florida Gators and Vanderbilt Commodores twice each, and a date with Mississippi State in Starkville still looms. The Cats could well fall a couple of games short of Cal's first UK team's 29-2 regular season mark. I hate to jinx it, but with each passing game that looks increasingly unlikely. With that said, I thought I'd break the two teams down today.

This year's team is averaging 78 points per game. They average 39.9 rebounds, 13.3 assists and a whopping 9.4 blocks a game. Kentucky shoots .486 overall and .369 from the three point line. Threes account for 20.2% of their makes, making for an adjusted field goal percentage of .535.

The Unbelievables averaged 79 points to go along with 40.7 boards, 14.7 assists and a shade over seven blocks. Though they shot .479 from the field, they were a more pedestrian .333 on the trey, with an AFG% of .531. In a somewhat surprising statistic, the 2010 team relied a little more on the 3 pointer, which accounted for 21.9% of their field goal makes.

As you can see, its hard to draw so much as a slice from those numbers. This team shoots and block shots better. Led by Wall, the 2010 team shared the ball and scored slightly more. But who am I kidding, you didn't click on this link to read raw numbers, you wanted these two teams broken down man by man, and to see someone stick their neck out on the line about which group of players is better. We'll do just that after the jump

Star-divide

CENTER

Theoretically, Anthony Davis is a forward, but he is the unquestioned man in the middle for this team. Comparing Davis and Demarcus Cousins is tough. Cousins was a fantastic player. His offensive skill set was the envy of any big man, with an array of post moves, range, touch and the footwork of a very large ballerina. He was also a ferocious rebounder and competitor who gave the 2009-2010 team an edge. Cousins averaged 15.1 points and 9.8 rebounds in a scant 23 minutes a game. That's mind boggling. But Boogie didn't do for his team what Davis does for this one. Simply put, Davis is a transformative player. His shot blocking ability puts this team on a plateau it otherwise couldn't reach. He is a human eraser whose mere presence makes everyone around him a better defender. His other numbers (13.9 and 10.1) don't quite reach Cousins', and it does take him 30 minutes a game to get them. So what. The best thing about Davis and his 30 MPG? He can stay on the floor and do what he does without getting in foul trouble. It sets him apart from Cousins as well as other big shot blockers and it a big reason why. . .

ADVANTAGE: 2012, slight

POWER FORWARD

Another tough battle between two likely long-time NBA players. We all remember Patrick Patterson as the likable superstar who expanded his game and sacrificed his own numbers for the good of the 2009-2010 team. His unselfishness and ability to turn himself into a stretch-the-floor three point shooting big man and more complimentary player was a big part of the 2009-2010 team's success. Terrence Jones, in contrast, has had a little tougher journey settling into his role this year. At times Jones looked lost after injuring his finger earlier in the season. Based on his recent production, however, those days appear to be over. Jones is Kentucky's most fearsome offensive threat. When he gets it going, you can almost see opposing coaches thinking, "Here I am worrying about Davis and I forget they have the best 6'9" guy in the country". Though his averages this year (12.5 and 6.4) aren't the numbers Patterson put up (14.3 and 7.4), that is partially explained by his injury and this year's team having more weapons. All in all, I think he is a bigger headache for the opposition. Still, it is hard to place Jones ahead of Patterson, whose leadership was so important to the 2009-2010 team.

ADVANTAGE: Even

SMALL FORWARD

I cannot say much new about Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. For a kid with his pedigree to come in and play with such passion and selflessness is as refreshing as it has been important to his team. But he isn't just a spark plug. He has lottery pick talent. Michael is a relentless rebounder and a better finisher in this open floor than anyone discussed here not named John Wall. His motor is legendary. In contrast, the starting SF for the 2010 team was a not quite ready for primetime Darrius Miller. I love Miller, and could argue convincingly that he deserves to be a first round draft pick in the NBA. But he was an afterthought in the starting lineup as a sophomore, averaging 6.5ppg in about 20 minutes.

ADVANTAGE: 2012, big

SHOOTING GUARD

Eric Bledsoe came to Kentucky with expectations that he would backup John Wall at point guard for a year, then blossom into a long-term solution at the position. He had other plans. From Day One, he established himself as a better than advertised shooter and elite athlete, very capable to holding his own against anyone in the country at the two guard spot. He took pressure off of Wall by giving other teams a second lightening quick player to worry about and serving as a backup at PG who didn't give teams much of a break. Kentucky has a two headed monster at the position now, and it is formidable. Doron Lamb is the coolest customer you'd ever want to meet, lethal from the 3-point line, but equally comfortable scoring with a series of pullups and floaters. He'd be averaging 18 points a game on many other NCAA tourney-bound teams. Lamb is an underrated defender, but not the ballhawk Bledsoe was. Eric was also a better passer and ballhandler.

Its hard not to make this comparison without also mentioning Miller, but since depth is a separate issue, I'll hold off.

ADVANTAGE: 2010, by a whisper

POINT GUARD

Here is where things start to get dicey for this year's squad. After struggling with decision making and perhaps some selfishness issues early on, Marquis Teague has made great strides this year. He is a good passer and very good penetrator. Though he isn't the field general some had hoped for, he has improved his assist to turnover ratio and hey, he's led a pretty darned potent attack this year. Like the rest of the team, he hustles and defends his butt off. Teague has a great future. But he isn't John Wall. The most talented UK player in a generation easily takes this one. Hopefully his recent pro struggles don't cause people to forget how truly special he was as a college player. The most anticipated UK recruit since Rex Chapman never disappointed, was a great teammate and defender, and may have been good for a few extra points a game as others were so in awe of his otherworldly talent. Whenever things weren't going well, he willed us to wins, almost like he could do anything he wanted on a college court when he had to. Kentucky will likely be a top program for the rest of my life but I'm not sure I'll see another John Wall.

ADVANTAGE: 2010, big

BENCH

A bit of a dichotomy here. Though the 2010 team ultimately takes this category, I'd argue both teams have/had good depth. They are just different kinds of depth. In Darius Miller, 2012 version, this year's Kentucky squad has a sixth starter. At 6'8" with a lethal outside shot and the courage to drive to open spots, Darius creates a huge matchup problem for most college teams. The fact that he can come in for Lamb, Miller or Teague makes the Cats hard to plan for. Kyle Wiljer has had his moments as a shooter and scorer, but his best years are probably ahead of him. Still, he has to be guarded at at 6'9", can get a shot off. Eloy Vargas has proven serviceable in spurts. I frankly hoped he'd progress more since last year. In sizing up the fifth option starter and first guy off the bench this year's Kentucky team is superior to 2010's. Position 7 may be a close call. But the party ends there.

The 2010 squad was Olympic diving well deep. Nine guys played double figure minutes and ten played essentially every game. They could come at you with two defensive stoppers (Ramon Harris and DeAndre Liggins), a lethal shooter (Darnell Dodson) and two legit shot blockers (Daniel Orton, who for all his faults averaged 1.4 blocks in thirteen minutes a game, as well as Perry Stevenson). Here's a stat. Josh Harrellson played more minutes in his first five games as a New York Knick (100) than he did that entire year (88). That, my friends, is some depth.

Advantage: 2010, moderate to big.

In college basketball, everything comes down to the tournament. The 2010 team was dominant, but failed to make the Final Four. The team captured the imagination of a great basketball starved Commonwealth and is still deservingly beloved. Ultimately, this team will be judged by what happens in March and barring catastrophe, it will be what happens in the tournament's final two weeks. So, I'll be the first to admit that this is not only an academic exercise, but also of questionable relevance. Still, after trying to stack these two teams up I'd say that the 2009-2010 team comes out ahead by the narrowest of margins. If the game is played 10 times, they win 6, with Cousins and Davis, Patterson and Jones batting for the ages, Gilchrist being the most important guy on the floor but the 2012 shooters ultimately bowing out to 2010's athletes more often than not.

Agree, disagree? Let's hear from you, BBN.

Follow me on Twitter @AlexScutchfield

0 recs  |  29 comments

Comments

this class

2011 class is considered best of all time. Count in experience of Darius Miller. Its multiple times more talented then 2009-2010. They dominate virtually every game.

2011 Recruits Are (Probably) Best Of Modern Era

However, Beard, Groza, Jones (et al) won 2 NCAA, Olympic Gold Medal, and NIT (when = NCAA).

Forty!

I’ve missed ya! Of course your right on that. I mean modern era.

Been Here (And There)

Just busy so not as much ASOB time.

me

Too!

2012 Wins

But 2010 would make it close.

Disagree on a few points

1) Even if we take Jones playing at his absolute best, Patterson was better, going away. A better shooter, a better defender, a better rebounder, a better passer, a smarter player, better post moves, and probably stronger as well.

2) On the other hand, I’d take Lamb over Bledsoe. Lamb is a better shooter, and at his best, a better defender. Not quite the ball handler Bledsoe was, but a better overall scorer, though the advantage is slight.

3) The 2012 team has better chemistry, already, and play better defense (significantly better, I’d say).

I’d say overall, the 2010 team would win 6 games out of 10. It would really depend on who wins the Cousin/Orton vs Davis matchup.

if davis

Were to stay here as long as Patterson or some of our other greats… he would go down as the best UK player of all time.

I don't disagree

But I think a lot of people would say the same thing about Wall. And Cousins would certainly have been in the Top 10. Neither has the upside of Davis, though.

It's way too early.

This team is improving at a such a rate. If the 2012 continues to improve it could pass the 2010 squad. The 2012 team will never score with 2010 Cats but Wall and company’s D was not in the latest versions league. This team would probably wipe the floor with the 2010 WVU Mountaineers.
I vote that Davis blocks a Patrick Patterson a last second baseline jumper in game 7 at the buzzer to preserve a victory. 2012 74 – 2010 73.
The real question “will we cut down the nets In NO this April?”
Go CATS!

Agree, b-cf

Those layups that Huggie’s team got would have been curtailed with this year’s team on the floor.

ah, but see,

you are cheating. There would never ever be a game 7. This is college basketball and you get one chance, and one chance only.

Sigh. I suppose if I must I too will go with this years team. It isn’t easy for me to say, but I think that this year’s team is quite simply put, smarter. The talent will about even out in my mind, but the basketball IQ, given these freshmen coupled with the upperclassmen Darius, well, that would give this team the win.

Plus, coaches learn something new every year too. Mistakes that may or may not have been made two years ago with such a young group are likely to have been remedied and won’t likely happen again.

This is a fun thought experiment!

First of all, I agree with Idig above that Patterson is without a doubt a better player than Terrence Jones. Better at everything pretty much. Also, I would say Lamb and Bledsoe are a push, which you pretty much said as well.

Last disagreement really is the bench. Tough to guage, but I don’t count DM as a bench player really. To be fair, I won’t count him for either team’s bench (I would have created a tandem 2/3 group). Liggins, Stevenson, Harris, Harrelson IMO is noticeably better than Vargas and Wiltjer. Liggins/Stevenson is a little better than Vargas/Wiltjer even, without the other guys.

That would be an amazing game to watch. I cannot decide who I think would win. At any given time, I might flip flop on my choice, depending on my mood. Overall, I think I will go 2012, because the defense and the team play have an advantage IMO. Man, Cousins would seriously neutralize AD though, and I don’t know about the other way around – probably not. I’m actually gonna go 2010. Actually, ask me tomorrow.

Great post.

lol ....I know whatcha mean
2012

the D is better, and like BSC said, they play smarter……would be a hell of game for sure

The only thing that stopped the 2010 squad was themselves.....

Anyone think that 2012 could play zone against them and make them implode like that?

I can’t call it…..too close

I'd sure like to be around

the Craft Center next summer. You might be able to get a little more information to go on. You know they’re going to have some monster pick-up games coming up.

awesome

I have thought about this often lately. If they had to play each other 10 times then I agree with Glenn that the Wall team would win 6. But with that said, this years team plays better together and are dangerous from everywhere. So while Walls team is better talent wise, when it comes to playing outside competition, give me this years team any day of the week.

Sorry

I mean I agree with Alex, not Glenn

2012

I agree with the obvious, 2012 has a better basketball IQ, they have better team chemistry, and they play outstanding team defense.

The old adage, you win basketball games by playing great defense, rebounding, and hitting your free throws. 2012 plays better “D” and hits their free throws. Rebounding is about even. So 2012 it is!

Patterson is the wild card in a matchup of 2010 vs 2012. Some will disagree, but, Pat had a tendency to disappear in big games. Would he disappear playing against the 2012 team? In my opinion, that is the biggest question mark with the 2010 team.

10 games played, 2012 win 6.

tough, but I go with 2012

They are starting to show that “greater than the sum of their parts” cohesiveness that made the Suffacats so great. For all the talent the 2010 team had, they never dominated SEC opponents the way this team has done in 3 straight games. They did have some big wins, but those were scattered throughout the season.

I'm really interested in these comments

You all surprised me. I thought conventional wisdom would be that I was stepping on hallowed ground to suggest the 2012 team could hang with the 2010 team, even 4 out of 10 times. If anything, the collective opinion is the exact opposite. Most of you think I didn’t go far enough and that the 2012 team is better.
As far as Jones and Patterson, I’m only considering junior year PPat. IMHO, that makes the matchup a lot closer than if you consider his whole career.
Also interested in all the comments about the current team’s chemistry and basketball IQ. I thought the 2010 team had very good chemistry, so it is cool that most think this team is better. It is certainly one of Cal’s best qualities, his ability to get talented players to play together.

I think it is really close

But when I think of the 2010 team, as talented as they were, I remember how much they let teams hang around when they shouldn’t have. This team has done that also from time to time, but not as often and not nearly as close as the 2010 team did. That’s what really pushes me to the 2012 squad.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say each team wins five.

Oh, yeah, and my favorite color is plaid. Actually, I think 2012 is just a little better because of outside shooting and (I don’t know if the stats bear this out or not) they take better care of the ball.

If I needed to win one game

I’d go with the 2010 squad. Wall is such a difference-maker at PG, I think that’s the trump card.

But of course, we know how the 2010’s story played out. Obviously if the 2012 Cats can reach the Final Four and cut down the nets, then the realist in me would change his opinion.

When we hang #8 this April

I know which one I am going with!

That's sticking your neck out a millimeter - brazen rascal you
I will NOT publicly announce

This year’s team as better against one that includes PPat. They are really, really good though! ’-)
We are having fun along with them.

What about that '09 team?

2012 better than they were? Heh.

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