Ken thoughtfully wrote the postmortem for me on Saturday when I was a bit indisposed, but I did want to offer some commentary about that game in the context of the season as a sort of prelude to the Florida Gators contest tomorrow night.
The first thing that comes to my mind is this: When national championship teams play struggling opponents, they don't let them in the game, they don't have long scoring droughts, they don't get into foul trouble and the don't let the crowd noise affect them. Contenders for the national championship bury weak teams under an avalanche of talent, skill and sharp execution on offense and defense.
Sound familiar?
I have waited what seems to be an eternity for this team's true identity to finally emerge, and these last three games have shown us what that identity is -- crushing defensive dominance bookended by merciless offensive efficiency. Kentucky has played good offensive and defensive games a number of times this season, but the last three have been so completely off-the-charts dominant defensively that the Wildcats scarcely needed to be efficient on offense -- if the other team cannot score, they cannot win -- but they were anyway.
JLev said something in a comment that got my attention, and the more I though about it, the more apt the comparison became. This team is like a vastly more talented version of the 2003 "Suffocats" in the way they win, and if you'll recall, it was roughly around this time of year when the Suffocat identity emerged. I trace the current team's emergence back to the LSU Tigers game on January 28th, and the Suffocats' coming-out party was at Vanderbilt on January 14th in 2003.
Now, I don't mean to compare the teams too much here, because they are vastly different in composition and execution. This 2012 team is bigger, more talented, much younger and goes about its defensive dominance in a completely different way. The Suffocats were all about ball pressure and positioning, whereas this team doesn't need ball pressure or positioning -- they have Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who create havoc defensively in a bewildering diversity of ways.
The original Suffocats were deeper, pressed a lot more, and were relentlessly efficient inside the arc. This 2012 team is slightly less efficient from 2, but is much more capable from outside the arc and overall, is a significantly better offensive team. Comparing straight-up defensive efficiency, 2003 was very slightly better defensively, but their margin in efficiency between offense and defense was significantly narrower than 2012, especially lately.
2012 is what the Suffocats would have been if they had six McDonald's All-Americans instead of only one (Keith Bogans) and three Parade AA's (Bogans, Chuck Hayes and Cliff Hawkins). Both teams really took pride in their defense, and that pride, as well as confidence, is growing game by game for 2012.
The biggest difference is the ruthless offensive efficiency that this team has shown lately. Of the last three games, two of them have been in the five best offensive performances of the year for the Wildcats (by the by, both in the other team's gym), and the blistering 1.42 points/possession against the South Carolina Gamecocks is their top performance of the year. By comparison, the best that 2003 ever managed was 1.32 p/p versus Vandy in the 104-44 beatdown that we all remember so fondly.
The bottom line: This is what a national title contender looks like. Forget the rankings, they are somewhat superficial as so many have reminded us during the year. What we are seeing now is a team that isn't just good, it is truly a superior basketball team -- but only in the present. If they can continue this kind of play, or even improve on it (scary, I know, but I firmly believe the Wildcats have yet to reach their potential), this season could become even more fun than it is now.
We'll all have a better idea about 24 hours from now when the Gators come to town. If we see a similar result to 2003, the basketball world will definitely take notice.
1 recs | 44 comments
Great post-
I agree with what you’re saying. This week we will see if it all is the real deal. Playing Florida at home, and then going to Memorial Gym on Saturday will be possibly the biggest tests so far. We are going to really have to guard the three point line in both of these games. I do not think Florida or Vandy can beat us inside. They each have one strong post player, but that won’t be enough… GO CATS!
iam4ukintn - February 6, 2012
the
Three defense could be our Achilles heel.
tenken - February 6, 2012 via mobile
+1
bigbill992001 - February 7, 2012
Our 3-point defense has improved.
It’s no longer a weakness.
Glenn Logan - February 7, 2012
Coach Cal has said often
that you cannot stop a team from taking threes. There are nights when everything a player or team throws up goes in. You have to make them take the more difficult shots. Florida and Vandy will hit some threes but I feel that our interior defense will keep them from winning.
kywineman - February 7, 2012
When teams come to play at Rupp
it seems like there is always some player on the opponents team that sinks 3s with their eyes closed. Let’s hope we can prevent that tonight.
hoboat33 - February 7, 2012
Thanks.
Glenn Logan - February 7, 2012
This week will say a lot
And to further the 2003 comparison, the game against Florida that year held much the same position as it does this year – at that time UK had played really well, but against mostly bad teams. Florida was the first chance to see how “real” it was and of course the Cats put on an amazing performance.
What I like is that they have put together 3 dominating performances in a row and against Georgia they had the defense working at the same level, just not the offense. Stringing together games like this is what makes the improvement real and not just a good game when everything came together.
They aren’t going to blow through Florida and Vandy like they did the 3 previous teams (although I would love it if they did!) but I do think they win convincingly tomorrow and post a strong win on Saturday.
JLeverenz - February 6, 2012
I so hope you are right...
and if they keep progressing like they have now that they are into the meat of the competition I don’t think you will be getting an argument, at least not from me.
Good post.
blenheim bard - February 6, 2012
Thanks.
Glenn Logan - February 7, 2012
Coach Cal-
Posted on facebook today that every seat in Rupp Arena tomorrow night, will have an Anthony Davis poster on it….. I wish I was going to be there… GO CATS!
iam4ukintn - February 6, 2012
I guess that is to make sure everyone stands for the whole game because
no one sits down on Anthony Davis!
kywineman - February 6, 2012
+1
iam4ukintn - February 6, 2012
Just saw the poster
over on KSR. It is totally awesome. Now I have to get there real early so no one steals it off my seat.
kywineman - February 6, 2012
I just saw it on the local news. That is a ten basketballs arm stretch!
I want one. Strike that, I think I need one. :-)
a2d2 - February 7, 2012
tomorrow
Is true test. Lets see.
tenken - February 6, 2012 via mobile
Wooooo!
I can’t wait for the game tomorrow
cakeonyou - February 6, 2012
Now that this team has shown it's true identity,
it is up to our opponents to try and take it away from them. I hope that facing two straight teams that can light it up from beyond the arc will show us how we will handle that challenge from here on out. Florida will press us hard, once again a good experience for our team.
Anyone else notice how the story is developing this year? We have shown flashes of brilliance at times and won ugly at others. We have been down in a hostile arena and fought our way back only to suffer a last second defeat. We have won all road games since then. Our SEC schedule is building to a crescendo, hopefully to fine tune us for the post season.
I have had the fortune to attend the games at Rupp this season and I can tell you it gives you a feel for the team you cannot get from TV. This feels like a championship team to me.
kywineman - February 6, 2012
Kenpom question
On the current Kenpom rankings (after 2/6 games), UK is ranked higher in offense than defense relative to the rest of the teams – offense 4th, defense 7th. Yet to my eye, only watching on television, it seems that the defense is more dominating than the offense. Do you all think that his rankings are pointing out my bias and that the offense is even better than the defense? Or is there a statistical reason for this ranking, such as UK’s opponents being worse on offense so that UK’s defense isn’t ranked as high as it truly is? UK’s opponents’ offense is ranked 149, but opponents’ defense is 25. Perhaps another explanation is how basketball works in reality; teams let up more on defense in a end of game blowout, but are still scoring even at a slower pace.
Of course most likely my pain meds are affecting my brain before the pain and I’m missing something.
GoLightning - February 7, 2012
I couldn't say for sure.
I do know that Kentucky’s offense of late has been very efficient, even though we haven’t scored a ton of points lately. The relatively low scoring is due to the more deliberate style forced on Kentucky by their opponents, but also the fact that Cal likes the offense to take its time and work for a good look.
Sometimes, a relatively low-scoring game can give you the impression of an inefficient offense, even though the reverse is actually true.
Glenn Logan - February 7, 2012
"This Is What A National Championship Competitor Looks Like"
I was just thinking the same thing. I realized the other day that from day to day and game to game I’ve not felt this sanguine about the Cats since 1996.
cmadler - February 7, 2012
If we guard the three as we do all other aspects of the game we'll win big - if we don't it could be a long night
Florida really doesn’t have much of an inside game but their three point shooting is number one in the country. I’m sure Coach Cal will have them ready for the barrage of three’s coming our way – fingers crossed.
KansasUKCat - February 7, 2012
Florida is a good 3-point shooting team ...
… but we have become solid at guarding the three.
The problem is, Florida has to come inside the arc for 60% of their points.
Glenn Logan - February 7, 2012
I'd hope MKG is on Beal all night.
UK1972 - February 7, 2012
Me too!
What a matchup…
I hope both teams are playing at their best tonight. If so it could be a classic. Billie will have his guys amped up. I think in the long run our front court will rule, but you can’t count out their long range bombs. I look for a game of spurts.
Coaching may be the difference tonight.
Go CATS!
big-cuz fan - February 7, 2012
"We have become solid at guarding the three."
Our two most recent opponents combined for 16-38 (42.1%) from downtown. And now we play the best 3-pt shooting team in the country.
I’m not so sanguine. As Cal says, you can’t stop a team from shooting threes. But I’d like to see us try. If Miller continues to satisfy himself with keeping his distance and raising a useless arm on outside shots, if Jones and Davis continue to leave their feet on pump fakes away from the rim, I’m going to let expletives fly. We have to funnel these guys toward the basket and force them to try their luck on our playground.
Wheatgerm - February 7, 2012
Our two most recent foes...
… have combined to shoot 7-24 from the arc (29.1%)
You must refer to our three most recent, but that percentage is deceptive. Those worthies combined to average 5.3 3-point field goals per contest, a total if 15 points per game. Besides, half of those makes were made in one game (LSU) that wasn’t even competitive.
So if you say you are concerned about a high 3-pt FG% in a road game that was statistically over with almost six minutes left, I say you need to search for something else to worry you.
Glenn Logan - February 7, 2012
Threes dont hurt so bad when they are the only shots your opponent is getting to shoot and they are only making one for every four of your baskets.
When you only shoot 10 times in a half and half of those are threes and you make half, the numbers are deceiving.
Greg Alan Edwards - February 7, 2012
So your point is Fl will score in 1 out of 4 posessions?
UK1972 - February 7, 2012
I am saying that if they do......let em shoot all of them they want.....:-)
But I honestly think that we are looking at 9-10 3’s by Florida, with not a lot else to go with them.
I think if we could limit Florida to scoring on less than 50% of their possessions, they can score whatever way they want, it won’t matter.
Greg Alan Edwards - February 7, 2012
I love this team
But for some reason, and the 2003 suffocats actually present a compelling comparison, I still think that this team needs to take a loss before the big dance. I love the development and the chemistry, and I know that Bogans’ injury in ’03 hurt that team big, but by tourney time, a #1 ranking and 20+ straight wins could inspire overconfidence.
That said, I’d love to be wrong, too. ;-)
kentuckyfin - February 7, 2012 via mobile
Which game would you like to lose?
A month ago, Cal seemed to want a loss. A big loss. Thought it was the only way to get his guys to pay attention. I don’t think that’s a problem anymore. They’re playing extremely well, and he’s been awfully complimentary.
I like our team’s confidence. I like the swag. I don’t think a loss would benefit them. Besides, we want the overall No. 1 seed. There is still a feeling in some quarters that Syracuse, Ohio State or North Carolina are really the better team. We have to dispel that notion over the next month.
Wheatgerm - February 7, 2012
This team does not need a loss unless that loss points out a weakness that can be corrected.
kywineman - February 7, 2012
I wouldn't want to become the 4th one seed and half to go out West. Let's not go there.
UK1972 - February 7, 2012
Btw, apologies for the long stretch between posts
I’ve just been lurking and too lazy/busy to sign in and post this season. I’ve caught maybe 3-4 games on the dss uk radio app for iPhone all season, that’s how my life has been of late. Hope asob are all well, and I’ll always bleed Blue, go Big Blue! (:
kentuckyfin - February 7, 2012 via mobile
Well, glad to see you're still around.
And thanks for the comment.
Glenn Logan - February 7, 2012
Our length.....
Our length adds a dimension to our defense that most teams have not played against. A team that is so perimeter oriented, Florida, is used to getting open looks and not seriously challenged from outside. This will not be the case tonight.
We may mix it up a little and play some zone, along with our man-to-man. Keeping Florida off-balance and out of their comfort zone is paramount. Will be interesting to “see” what we do on the defensive end.
Our offense should control the paint and Young/Murphy will have offensive and defensive problems with our inside game.
Should be a test, but, Florida will have to blister the nets to beat UK…….our length on defense will not let that happen. UK wins by 8!
seattlekat - February 7, 2012
On D, protect the 3-ball, on O, pound it inside=W
UK1972 - February 7, 2012
ESPN had some footage
of Florida using the picks to free up the three point shot. They showed defenses leaving the man who sets the pick open by failing to switch on defense. I kept thinking that that isn’t anything particularly great Florida is doing but rather really poor defense by the other team. Florida will hurt you with threes if you let them. I don’t think that Cal will allow our team to break down like that.
kywineman - February 7, 2012
I haven't watched Florida much this season
but in years past, their picks quite often involved sticking a knee out. If they are allowed to get away with that, it could spell trouble.
UKCat - February 7, 2012
They may get away with it in Gainesville.
They probably won’t in Lexington.
Glenn Logan - February 7, 2012
Really solid post, Glenn
And good enough for NBC’s Mike Miller. Allsome.
http://beyondthearc.nbcsports.com/2012/02/07/if-kentuckys-getting-better-which-everyone-else-luck-in-march/
jc25 - February 7, 2012
Thanks for the link, JC.
Glenn Logan - February 7, 2012
Careful, y'all
Here comes the national bandwagon… watch your toes!
BeachBubbaTex - February 7, 2012
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